Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 191.280348 234.470025 288.912191 364.082886 467.677637 6.093948e+02 8.254179e+02
2025-02-16 143.222950 192.286780 262.681459 376.097957 565.158552 8.915906e+02 1.565222e+03
2025-02-23 116.725790 166.385057 244.180514 384.323403 655.374813 1.227374e+03 2.821300e+03
2025-03-02 96.811555 143.731157 221.863743 374.512363 705.618060 1.532285e+03 4.604563e+03
2025-03-09 82.774788 126.824416 203.789355 364.430518 748.719454 1.868249e+03 7.496683e+03
2025-03-16 71.667458 112.486037 186.514296 349.386031 771.991795 2.183350e+03 1.182743e+04
2025-03-23 68.344181 110.948080 192.408581 385.976862 954.696185 3.336584e+03 3.372803e+04
2025-03-30 62.623523 103.977767 185.933380 391.439234 1052.805813 4.374427e+03 8.666159e+04
2025-04-06 58.746068 99.817932 184.294788 408.594243 1207.235761 6.207029e+03 4.072181e+05
2025-04-13 53.699435 92.618302 174.637223 400.906848 1265.205406 7.658297e+03 2.306147e+06
2025-04-20 52.356542 92.612676 181.045674 441.896833 1574.789125 1.335376e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 50.713194 91.717995 185.184129 478.312206 1920.004533 2.397711e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 48.536199 89.577591 186.375596 508.157312 2301.254527 4.597984e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 46.070525 86.484306 184.600541 527.695222 2671.281142 9.085855e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 43.616157 83.084198 181.345264 540.746804 3039.109521 1.934079e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 40.493162 77.774397 171.925874 525.343832 3144.288254 3.183724e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 37.709157 72.959261 163.121079 509.565126 3233.356933 5.491935e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.999525 68.049166 153.308136 486.142283 3212.445460 8.361647e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 34.767943 69.004800 160.581674 543.374332 4319.765518 5.100965e+07 NaN
2025-06-22 33.263997 66.697621 157.762071 551.993696 4857.016655 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 32.287683 65.588285 158.426344 579.188118 5864.175793 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 30.564780 62.432064 152.160509 566.978679 6117.894495 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 30.436672 63.319733 159.033670 632.508434 8606.595223 NaN NaN